Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007341 0.008266 0.009264 0.010423 0.011731 0.013164 0.014854
2026-02-01 0.005742 0.006986 0.008438 0.010262 0.012495 0.015145 0.018534
2026-02-08 0.004924 0.006319 0.008038 0.010320 0.013274 0.016981 0.022002
2026-02-15 0.004290 0.005748 0.007628 0.010234 0.013769 0.018412 0.025005
2026-02-22 0.003913 0.005444 0.007494 0.010450 0.014621 0.020326 0.028771
2026-03-01 0.003431 0.004934 0.007014 0.010118 0.014656 0.021088 0.030965
2026-03-08 0.003074 0.004556 0.006670 0.009925 0.014841 0.022038 0.033470
2026-03-15 0.002754 0.004195 0.006311 0.009663 0.014878 0.022747 0.035644
2026-03-22 0.002629 0.004112 0.006348 0.009990 0.015822 0.024881 0.040184
2026-03-29 0.002488 0.003989 0.006310 0.010189 0.016571 0.026760 0.044467
2026-04-05 0.002368 0.003885 0.006290 0.010409 0.017362 0.028754 0.049100
2026-04-12 0.002194 0.003681 0.006089 0.010309 0.017607 0.029861 0.052310
2026-04-19 0.002050 0.003515 0.005942 0.010295 0.018008 0.031279 0.056229
2026-04-26 0.001893 0.003314 0.005720 0.010133 0.018134 0.032234 0.059410
2026-05-03 0.001788 0.003196 0.005628 0.010189 0.018650 0.033909 0.064045
2026-05-10 0.001671 0.003045 0.005468 0.010105 0.018897 0.035107 0.067880
2026-05-17 0.001609 0.002988 0.005470 0.010318 0.019709 0.037412 0.074044
2026-05-24 0.001476 0.002790 0.005197 0.009990 0.019461 0.037678 0.076193
2026-05-31 0.001373 0.002641 0.005005 0.009800 0.019460 0.038416 0.079345
2026-06-07 0.001271 0.002485 0.004788 0.009541 0.019299 0.038818 0.081830
2026-06-14 0.001246 0.002479 0.004859 0.009864 0.020341 0.041723 0.089854
2026-06-21 0.001208 0.002443 0.004868 0.010061 0.021136 0.044180 0.097128
2026-06-28 0.001174 0.002413 0.004888 0.010277 0.021989 0.046821 0.105043